It's time for the December edition of the leaderboard statistics.
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Archives:
October '11
[url=http://www.alienwarearena.com/forums/topic/9536/off-topic-discussion/arp-leaderboard-statistics-november-39-11/ ]November '11[/url]
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Activity Analysis:

Activity Legend:
Very Active = 10
Active = 6-9
Inactive = 1-5
Dead = < 1
Note: I have decided to use an easier metric to determine how active a member is. I took one's Monthly ARP and divided it over 30 days to average how many posts you make on a daily basis for a month. I was very lenient this time and labeled members as Very Active if they managed to hit the Monthly Cap. However, if I saw that you just recently hit the cap and stopped posting from that point on, I labeled you as merely Active. Besides that, Active members are simply members who can average around 6-9 posts daily. Inactive members are those who make about 1-5 posts daily. Dead members are those who make about less than 1 post daily. These are rough estimates and merely averages. I will use this new metric because it is a lot easier for me to calculate and removes the bias my old metric had. I've also decided to remove the Very Inactive criteria. It was too close to the Dead criteria. Also, I adapted this new criteria to the previous month to have comparable data.

I'm quite surprised that overall, the leaderboard has become slightly more active. Unfortunately, Dead members still represent 60% of the leaderboard. It's not much of a change from last year though. Something new that I calculated is that for December, we have 10 new members on the leaderboard. Congrats to the newcomers!

Major flaw: The only real flaw is the benchmarks that I imposed. The fact that I removed the Very Inactive criteria has resulted in many of the Very Inactive turning into Dead, despite the fact that many had some forum posts.
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Monthly ARP Analysis:
The only thing worth noting here is that we have an increase in the number of monthly capped members. In return, we have more members not getting any ARP. It also seems that once people hit 249 Monthly ARP, they will tend to cap out instead of staying in that range. Capped users are making even more of the total ARP.

Note: If you're wondering why the data only has a total of 98 members, it's because one member on the leaderboard is the Admin account that posts the videos and another member was nuked for the month and has -5 Monthly ARP.

Major flaw: This data is only for the leaderboard. There are numerous other members not on the leaderboard who have capped or a substantial amount of Monthly ARP. I cannot record all the members not on the leaderboard. The vast amount of data would make my head explode. The admins have that type of data though but I'm sure they won't release it to me.
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Level Analysis:
So my prediction was wrong. Not everyone on the leaderboard is Level 5 now. We only have six Dead Level 4 though, which results in about 94% of the leaderboard is Level 5. About 20% of the leaderboard is Level 7. This might be an indicator to start releasing new levels. It is still rather unfortunate to see that more than half of the Level 6 and Level 5 members are Dead.

Major flaw: The breakdown of activity for each Level was based on my Activity metric, which is very subjective.
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USA/Canada Sweepstakes Winners
Star Wars: The Old Republic (PC):
1. aliencat
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
2. ScaryPandaBear
(Second-time winner. Previous winner of May '11. On the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 8
Total ARP Entered: 194

Dell ST2420L 24-inch Full HD Widescreen Monitor with LED:
1. Eirreann
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
2. Addice
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 139
Total ARP Entered: 6738

Alienware TactX Mouse:
1. cheeseburger118
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
2. sharpshooter557
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 109
Total ARP Entered: 2857

Dell $50 Gift Card:
1. Wizard45
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
2. killer435214
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 44
Total ARP Entered: 1375

Note: "Total Entries" and "Total ARP Entered" was what I collected an hour before the end of the Sweepstakes bidding period.

Europe Sweepstakes Winners
Star Wars: The Old Republic (PC):
1. Sky-Dexter
(Second-time winner. Previous winner of November '11. On the leaderboard.)
2. There was only one entry for this. Any eligible European should have bid here.
Total Entries: 1
Total ARP Entered: 1

Dell ST2420L 24-inch Full HD Widescreen Monitor with LED:
1. DreyraJar
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
2. krishnooof
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 28
Total ARP Entered: 992

Alienware TactX Mouse:
1. Tatzua
(First-time winner! Congrats! On the leaderboard.)
2. mr_hate
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 23
Total ARP Entered: 662

Dell $50 Gift Card:
1. Yeti575
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
2. kenneyboy
(First-time winner! Congrats! Not on the leaderboard.)
Total Entries: 2
Total ARP Entered: 35

Note: "Total Entries" and "Total ARP Entered" was what krishnoof provided four hours before the end of the Sweepstakes bidding period.

Sweepstakes Analysis:
Oddly enough, more than half of the winners for both Sweepstakes are on the leaderboard. Could this possibly be a trend? Also, I still find it funny how Europe's total entries only represent a sixth of the USA/Canada's. Wonderful odds for the active European members.

Major flaw: "Total Entries" includes split bids so total entries does not represent the total amount of users in that Sweepstakes.



Winners Analysis:
The leaderboard now represents 35% of all of the Sweepstakes' winners. This is a 2% increase from last month. It would be interesting if this would be a constant rate.

Major flaw: These numbers fluctuate monthly because many previous winners are dead. More active members will eventually bump these winners off the leaderboard, thus, lowering the actual total wins.
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Understated Analysis:
I have provided this data because I was curious on how overstated the leaderboard would be from the bug. Also, it will tell you how understated you are if are unaware of it. A quarter of the leaderboard has benefited from this bug, thus, possibly making it harder for newer members to enter. According to the staff, the overall understated ARP is just a "wee bit of extra lifetime ARP".

Major flaw: This is only the leaderboard. Members not on the leaderboard have also benefited and unfortunately, I do not record data from such members.
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Going Forward:
If these results are a trend, I can make a few future predictions of the leaderboard.

1. This time, for sure, the leaderboard will be at least Level 5.
2. By simply capping for three months, you will most probably be on the leaderboard. This shows that most people don't stay here long and overall, the community is not very active. This seems to hold true every month.
3. Based on what Diesel said, if the ARP requirements for each Level is constant, 3 of the Level 7 users are actually at a theoretical Level 8 (2,000 ARP) and 7 are at a theoretical Level 9 (2,500 ARP). Theoretical Level 10 should require 3,500 ARP.
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Interesting Tidbits:
1. Only one of the top 10 users failed to cap. This might be your chance, deadremix and Podunks!
2. In every Sweepstakes, there was a repeat winner. The only Sweepstakes that had no repeat winners was the one in February '11.
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Feedback welcome. If you are curious about other calculations, let me know.

Last edited: 1/10/12 at 1:41PM EST

Thanks for the info. Where do you get this information, and how do I know where i am in the leaderboards? Also, am i a legit very active ore the renamed" very active" , or just active?

I get this information simply by recording the data from the leaderboard. The link is a section under ARP. You are not on the leaderboard but if you were, I'd probably write you down as Active.

I see. hahahah im close though. Probably by the end of this month i be in the leader boards

If you cap for this month, without a doubt, you will be on the leaderboard.

Nice wiki.
If you want to update your eurpean sweep analysis i can give you a hand. for now it looks like this:
Star Wars: Total entries: 0, ARP entered: 0
Dell Monitor: Total entries: 5, ARP entered: 607
TactX mouse: Total entries: 5, ARP entered: 542
Dell Gift Card: Total entries: 2, ARP entered: 35

It seems like not many eurpopeans had a chance to participate. Still 5 days to go so this may change. For now, there are only 9 users participating (some split their ARP between prizes)

Thank you very much! Are the quantities the same? I'm going to need an update of the European Sweepstakes near the end of the period or so. I also actually record which members entered as well and what each bid. I might be able to calculate some stuff. I'm hoping the European sweepstakes has a lot more entries as 9 is so minute compared to USA/Canada's 130ish (including splits but I can't figure out who split what).

That was great, quite informative.

quantities of the items? Well, yeah, its 2 of each, but than again i can see value in US dollars, not euros or british pounds so maybe it's a bug.

definewikipedia said: Thank you very much! Are the quantities the same? I'm going to need an update of the European Sweepstakes near the end of the period or so. I also actually record which members entered as well and what each bid. I might be able to calculate some stuff. I'm hoping the European sweepstakes has a lot more entries as 9 is so minute compared to USA/Canada's 130ish (including splits but I can't figure out who split what).

I can get that info for you closer to the end. I'm also hoping for more entries, but i don't think there are many active members in participating countries. Tatzua, Yeti, DreyraJar and myself have already entered, not sure who else in Europe is active. (i still have 20 ARP, not sure if i want to put it into the mouse or star wars)

Everyone wants that monitor oh boy.

Do we know yet if what were seeing (Europeans) is a joint German/French/English sweepstake or one for each country? I recognise three of the ^^ participants as 'English' but not the few others.

Best of luck krish, that mouse is mine :-))

TheDarkCthun said: Everyone wants that monitor oh boy.

I expected the monitor to get a lot of attention, but holy, so many 300 ARP bids on that item, of course the mouse is quite contested as well, to be expected.

Brilliant job Wiki. It's a really interesting read.

Yeti575 said: Do we know yet if what were seeing (Europeans) is a joint German/French/English sweepstake or one for each country? I recognise three of the ^^ participants as 'English' but not the few others.

Best of luck krish, that mouse is mine :-))

Yep, we see joint sweeps. DreyraJar is from Germany, you UK and I'm also UK but i'm in France now, so if they really use IP to let you participate, i might have been counted in French sweeps.

And best of luck to you to, hope you get your mouse:)